Issue 139 | June 2023

MORE INDUSTRIAL ACTION IN SCHOOLS AND COLLEGES ON THE WAY

• The Association of Colleges (AoC), which represents college employers, is continuing to refuse to make a pay offer: UCU, along with four other unions representing staff in FE colleges, are asking for a pay increase of 15.4% this year.  The unions also want a return to nationally agreed conditions (including workload) for staff in all FE colleges and for pay to be determined by national pay negotiations that will be binding on all colleges in England.  Pay in colleges is currently determined by the college corporation, which is the employer, but the AoC has refused to recommend a pay offer and is continuing to do so on the basis that colleges are not in a strong enough financial position to pay anywhere near what the unions are asking for.  Instead, the AoC has called on the government to provide colleges with at least enough additional funding to pay FE staff an increase equivalent to the amount that the government is offering to school teachers (and is providing the funding for).  At the time of writing teachers have been offered a one-off payment of £1,000 for the current academic year on top of the average pay rise of 5.4% which teachers received in September 2022.  Teachers have been offered an average pay rise of 4.5% for the 2023/24 academic year.  Teachers in schools already earn around £8,000 more than FE teachers with a broadly similar workload.
• UCU plans co-ordinated industrial action in FE colleges in England: The University and College Union (UCU) held its 2023 Congress on 27, 28 and 29 May in the ‘Scottish Event Campus’ in Glasgow. Representatives from 190 FE college branches attended the Congress, and on 28 May voted to hold a ballot on co-ordinated strike action across the whole FE college sector in England.  The ballot will take place this September and, depending on the outcome of the ballot, strikes could commence from October onwards.  As an aside, UCU members attending the Congress also passed a resolution demanding that the Government stop arming Ukraine and calling on union members to support anti-war organisations.  Jo Grady, the General Secretary of the UCU, said she was ‘deeply disappointed’ that this motion had been passed.
• NASUWT hold ballot for further industrial action: On 5 June, the National Association of Schoolmasters/ Union of Women Teachers (NASUWT) opened a ballot for further industrial action in state-funded schools in England. The ballot closes on July 10.  An earlier ballot of NASUWT members in sixth opened last month and closed on 12 June.  At the time of writing, the results of the ballot have not yet been declared.  The NASUWT is demanding a ‘fully-funded restorative pay award’ for all teachers that will ‘offset inflation’ and for the issue of ‘excessive workload and long working hours’ to be resolved.  The NAS/UWT has also written to the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, calling on him to intervene in the dispute following the refusal of Gillian Keegan, the Secretary of State for Education in England to enter into any further negotiations with the NASUWT and other teacher unions.
• NEU calls on Secretary of State to publish the leaked STRB report: On 9 June, the National Education Union (NEU) wrote to Gillian Keegan, the Secretary of State for Education in England repeating the call from other school teacher and leader unions for the leaked School Teachers’ Review Body (STRB) pay award recommendation to be made public. In the letter, the NEU says ‘…delay in giving vital information to headteachers is disrespectful in the extreme’.  The letter goes on to say, ‘…we consider your refusal to engage with the unions to discuss this year’s pay, the leaked STRB report, workload and funding to be inexplicable’ and that, ‘…failure to publish the STRB report also raises suspicions that the government is planning not to implement the recommendations of the STRB’.  On 12 June, a spokesperson for the DfE said that the department was considering the STRB recommendations and would publish its response ‘in due course’.  On 16 June, NEU executive announced that further strike action will take place on 5^th and 7^th of July.
• On 19 June, the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL) announced that it would be holding its first national ballot on industrial action in its 150-year history. The ballot closes at 12 noon on 31 July.  In the event of a ‘yes’ vote, strike action is expected to take place on dates to be announced within the period 1 September 2023 to late January 2024.  ASCL says it intends to coordinate action taken with the other education unions, including the National Association of Head Teachers (NAHT), NEU and NASUWT.

OFSTED UNDER PRESSURE

The Ofsted inspection process has long been the subject of criticism from school and college unions who have argued that it is not fit for purpose.  A flashpoint came in the form of an inspection by Ofsted of a primary school, one of the outcomes of which was the previous judgement of the school’s leadership and management was downgraded from ‘good’ to ‘inadequate’.  The main reason for the downgrade was a limiting judgement based on alleged safeguarding failings.  This resulted in the school being given an ‘inadequate’ grade for overall effectiveness and is believed to have caused the suicide of the school’s head teacher.  This led to wide ranging calls, including not only from the teaching unions but also from Labour and other opposition parties in parliament, for the reform of the whole of the inspection process, starting with a review of the use of one-word grades of effectiveness and the impact of limiting judgements on overall effectiveness grades.  Ofsted Chief Inspector, Amanda Spielman, has admitted in a statement published on 24 March that the current inspection system ‘was not working’ and that Ofsted was in the process of conducting its own internal review.  Aspects of proposals for change include the following:

• 23 May – Ofsted Deputy Director announces that the Education Inspection Framework is to be reviewed: Speaking at the conference of the Skills and Education Group 2023 Conference in Leicester on 23 May, Paul Joyce, Ofsted’s Deputy Director of FE and Skills, told delegates that Ofsted has commenced a review of the Education Inspection Framework (EIF), which was introduced in 2019. Mr Joyce said that the review will include an analysis and evaluation of:
  • How the EIF has been implemented in schools and colleges.
  • Whether the EIF has worked in the way that was intended and what should be done differently.
  • Whether inspection reports are the right length, detailed enough and are unique to the provider.
  • How Ofsted inspects large and complex providers in FE and skills. There is no proposal to increase the size of inspection teams, but Ofsted is considering whether larger providers should be given more pre-inspection notice.
• 12 June – Ofsted launches a consultation on changes to the complaints procedure: On 12 June Ofsted launched a consultation on changes to its complaints procedure. In the past, complaints from those inspected have very rarely been upheld.  An extremely rare example of an inspection grade being found to be inaccurate and overturned on appeal was when a private hairdressing training provider, UK Training and Development Limited (UKTD) challenged being awarded an ‘inadequate’ Ofsted inspection grade, particularly since this usually results the termination of a private provider’s contract with the Education and Skills Funding Agency (ESFA).  UKTD lost its first appeal, and the damaging inspection report was published.  However, after commissioning lawyers to take up the case, UKTD was reinspected by a completely different and smaller inspection team and was judged as ‘good’ at the end of the inspection.  As a result of this UKTD’s initial inspection report had to be withdrawn and a new inspection report published.

Proposed changes to the complaints procedure outlined in the consultation (responses to which are required by 15 September) include the following:

• Enabling formal complaints to initially be investigated by a member of Ofsted staff who is independent of the inspection.
• Enhancing on-site professional dialogue during inspections to help address any issues before the end of the inspection visit.
• Introducing a new opportunity for providers to contact Ofsted the day after an inspection if they have any unresolved concerns.
• Introducing new arrangements for finalising reports and considering formal challenges to inspection outcomes.
• Replacing the current internal review process with a direct escalation to theIndependent Complaints Adjudication Service for Ofsted (ICASO).
• 12 June – Ofsted announces changes to safeguarding: Ofsted says that from this September, schools and colleges will be provided with greater clarity about the threshold for an ‘inadequate’ safeguarding judgement. This will be made available through the Ofsted inspection handbook, Ofsted blogs and will also be described more clearly in inspection reports. This, says Ofsted, is to help provide reassurance that judgements are not made lightly.  Revisions to school and college inspections will also see inspectors return more quickly to those schools and colleges graded ‘inadequate’ for overall effectiveness where this is due to inadequate safeguarding.  Ofsted says that the proposed changes to Ofsted’s complaints process mentioned above will also make it easier for schools and colleges to raise concerns.
• 12 June – Ofsted announces additional DfE funded support for wellbeing: The DfE funds a charity called Education Support to provide wellbeing help for school and college leaders and teachers. The Education Support website says that so far, the service has been used by 80,000 school and college staff and direct support has been provided for 9,570 staff (which presumably includes those who have been traumatised by an Ofsted inspection).  Ofsted says that from March 2024, the DfE will provide additional Education Support funding for a further 500 school and college leaders to help promote the wellbeing of those inspected.
• 13 June: House of Commons Education Committee launches its own inquiry into how Ofsted inspects schools and colleges: The Committee has announced that it is launchingits own inquiry into the way in which Ofsted inspects schools and colleges in England.  As part of their inquiry, the Committee will look at:
• The current EIF, first introduced in 2019, and examine whether this has had a positive impact on standards, and the workload and wellbeing of teachers and leaders.
• Questions raised by the education sector that the ratings and feedback Ofsted gives to schools and colleges may not be conducive to helping them improve. In the statement published on 24 March (see above), Ofsted Chief Inspector, Amanda Spielman acknowledged that there are ‘legitimate questions to be asked’ about the use of the four-level ratings system.
• The complaints procedures available to schools and colleges, which Ms Spielman admits is ‘not a satisfying process’ for some schools and colleges.
• How useful Ofsted inspections and inspection reports are to providers, prospective students, parents, governors, employers and other stakeholders (who, along with school and college unions, will be invited to submit details of their own experiences of inspections to the committee).
• 13 June: The Committee announced a separate inquiry that will look at the circumstances of the inspection that is alleged to have led, or contributed, to the recent suicide of a head teacher.
• In arriving at an overall judgement on the inspection process, of some interest might be the responses to Ofsted’s post-inspection surveys, which last year found that 92% of schools and colleges said they were satisfied with the way the inspection was carried out, and 85% agreed that the benefits of inspection outweighed any negatives.  Mind you, those who responded positively may just have been too scared to say anything else.

OFQUAL PUBLISHES DATA ON SUMMER GCSE, A-LEVEL AND AS-LEVEL ENTRIES

On 1 June, Ofqual published data on the number of GCSE, A-Level and AS-Level entries for this summer’s exams in England. The data shows that:

• GCSE summer entries increased by 3.6% from 5,349,250 in 2022 to 5,543,840 in 2023.
• A-Level summer entries increased by 2.3% from 788,125 in 2022 to 806,410 in 2023.
• AS-Level entries decreased by 2.0% from 64,080 in 2022 to 62,785 in 2023.
• There was a small increase in the proportion of core subject GCSE entries in the English Baccalaureate (EBacc) from 81.8% in 2022 to 82.2% in 2023. Core subjects include English language and literature, maths, sciences, geography or history and a foreign language.

OFQUAL PUBLISHES LEVEL 3 VTQ ENTRY DATA FOR THE FIRST TIME

Ofqual publishes A-Level and GCSE entry data every year, but until this year did not publish vocational and technical qualifications (VTQs) entry data.  However, on 16 June Ofqual issued a press release which said that Level 3 VTQs entry data would be published this year for the first time.  The press release says, ‘Ofqual is today revealing that more than 334,000 results for vocational and technical qualifications are due to be issued this August, in a move that marks the first significant step towards parity of treatment between A levels and Level 3 VTQs’.  Ofqual goes on to say that the entry data is the ‘culmination of 2,500 schools and colleges in England confirming with awarding organisations (AOs) which of their students expect to get Level 3 VTQ results this summer’, but critics say that no further breakdown of entry data by VTQ type (for example BTECs) has been made available as yet and that the information is very limited compared to the equivalent release on A-levels and GCSE entries.

FAKE EXAM PAPERS SOLD BY FRAUDSTERS USING SOCIAL MEDIA

In 2019, Edexcel apologised when part of an A-Level maths paper was shared on social media the day before the exam.  Leaks of genuine exam papers are rare, but the sale of fake GCSE and A-Level papers on social media platforms such as Instagram and TikTok are growing and have become a serious problem.  A BBC investigation found that many students have typically paid, or are paying, from £60 up to £4,000 in the hope of seeing exam papers in advance of exams taking place.  They have been asked to make payment either via cash transfer apps (or, in some cases, in high street vouchers!).  Commenting on this, the Joint Council for Qualifications (JCQ), which represents the eight largest exam boards, said they were aware that fraudsters were using social media platforms claiming to sell genuine exam papers (which are really fake) and that exam boards have established dedicated teams who search for these accounts.  However, exam boards have no power to shut the accounts down, so instead they report them to the firms that own and administer the platforms. When informed of the problem, a spokesperson for Meta, which owns Instagram, said that any such content would be removed from their platform.  A spokesperson for TikTok said any accounts known to be promoting fraud or scams will be removed.  And Snapchat said users should report suspicious activity so that appropriate action can be quickly taken.  Meanwhile, Ofqual has issued a statement warning students that anyone caught cheating, including via procuring genuine papers in advance, is likely to face disqualification.

ONLINE SAFETY BILL

On 26 May, the government’s Online Safety Bill passed through its committee stage in the House of Lords.  If and when the Bill is enacted into law, it will place a duty of care on social media firms requiring them to remove harmful content quickly, or face fines of up to £18 million, or up to 10% of global turnover, whichever sum is the largest.  Ofcom will also be required to issue codes of practice to social media firms outlining the systems and processes they will need to adopt in order to be compliant with the law, along with a warning that they could face criminal action, as well as fines, if they are found not to be.  The bill lists a range of content which may cause a young person or vulnerable adult to become a victim.  The list includes grooming, revenge porn, hate speech, images of child abuse and posts relating to suicide.  It also covers content that may involve radicalisation, terrorism, racist abuse, along with online scams, examples of which include fake investment opportunities and offering fake GCSE and A-Level exam papers for sale.  However, the bill also says that it is necessary to continue to allow ‘democratically important content’ to be posted on social media.  Examples of this would include that which promotes or opposes government policy or a political party ahead of a vote, election or referendum.  The originators of the bill acknowledge with some content, the line between protecting free speech and the potential to cause harm is sometimes difficult to establish.  Reflecting this, some campaigners say that if the bill becomes law it will lead to censorship, while other campaigners say that the threat of fines and criminal action should social media firms fail to comply with their legal duty to remove harmful content, does not go far enough.

DFE ANNOUNCES SECOND ROUND OF THE HIGHER TECHNICAL EDUCATION SKILLS INJECTION FUND

On 7 June, the Department for Education (DfE) in England announced that a further £48.8 million (£29.8 million in capital funding and £19 million in revenue funding) would be made available over the 2023/24 and 2024/25 financial years through the second round of the Higher Technical Education Skills Injection Fund (SIF).  The purpose of the SIF, says the DfE, is to help to meet local labour market needs and boost local economies by providing financial support for the development and rollout of Level 4 and 5 Higher Technical Qualifications (HTQs).  The second round builds on the first round of the SIF launched in 2022, which distributed more than £21 million to 85 providers.  The first round, in turn, built on the  Higher Technical Education Growth Fund (HTE) launched in 2021.  The SIF is intended to help colleges and other providers to deliver more HTQs by funding specialist equipment, facilities, and upskilling staff.  The development of HTQs is a key part of the Government’s post-18 skills reforms, which also includes the Lifelong Loan Entitlement (LLE) that is intended to help with tuition fees and maintenance for those who choose to take the new HTQ courses.  FE colleges and other providers have been invited to apply for a share of the second round of the SIF to help with the delivery of Level 4 and 5 HTQ courses starting this September.  The deadline for submitting SIF applications is 21st July.

DFE ANNOUNCES FINAL STAGE ALLOCATIONS FROM THE FE CAPITAL TRANSFORMATION FUND

The DfE is investing £1.5 billion to upgrade FE college estates via a FE Capital Transformation Fund.  The funding will be made available over a 6-year period ending in March 2026.  Virtually all FE colleges in England have (or will) receive a share of the £1.5 billion, which has (or will) be allocated in 4 stages.  These are as follows:

• Stage 1: September 2020 – All eligible FE colleges and designated institutions were allocated a share of a formulaic allocation of £200 million to help them carry out improvement projects related to building conditions.
• Stage 2: April 2022 – £600 million was allocated to 16 colleges deemed to have the sites in the worst condition.  In some cases, the buildings are in such poor condition that demolition and a complete rebuild is regarded as the most cost-effective solution.  These are long-term projects that will span several years.
• Stage 3: September 2022 – 60 colleges were allocated a share of £410 million for 75 projects they had successfully bid for, plus a further 2 projects in colleges which are undergoing ESFA restructuring.
• Stage 4: April 2023 onwards – £286 million will be shared through a formulaic allocation to all eligible FE colleges and designated institutions. This is the final stage allocation of funding.

Guidance for colleges on how allocations should be spent can be found here.

DFE ANNOUNCES LATEST ALLOCATIONS FROM THE POST-16 CAPACITY FUND

The Post-16 Capacity Fund is being made available to general FE colleges, sixth form colleges, 16-19 academies and 16-19 free schools (such as university technical colleges), to help them expand their existing facilities and/or build new facilities to accommodate the large demographic increase in 16-19-year-olds expected in coming years.  11-18 schools are not eligible to access this funding since the have their own capacity fund.

On 7 June, the DfE published a list of 42 colleges that will share £140 million in 2023/24 in the third round of allocations from the Post-16 Capacity Fund.  This follows on from the allocation of £83 million in 2020/21 that was shared between 39 colleges and £8.6 million that was shared between 8 colleges in 2022/23.  This brings total spending from the fund to more than £230 million across 89 providers.

DFE PUBLISHES 2022/23 DATA ON ‘SCHOOLS, PUPILS AND THEIR CHARACTERISTICS IN ENGLAND’

On 8 June, the DfE published its latest data on ‘Schools, Pupils and their Characteristics’ for the 2022/23 academic year. The data reveals that in England:

• The number of pupils in all state funded and independent schools in England increased by 73,800 to 9.1 million.
• The number of pupils attending academies (including free schools) has continued to grow, along with the number of academies. 6% of all schools were academies, but 54.4% of all pupils attended an academy.
• Nearly 39,000 pupils were identified as being a young carer.
• The number of pupils in state-funded pupil referral units (PRUs) increased by 13% to 13,200. 9% of pupils in PRUs are boys, similar to the proportion in other years.
• Pupil-teacher ratios have remained stable at7 pupils per teacher in nurseries and primary schools, 16.8 pupils per teacher in secondary schools, and 6.4 pupils per teacher in special schools and PRUs.
• Nearly one in four (23.8%) of pupils (equivalent to more than 2 million) across all school types were eligible for free school meals, up from 22.5% in 2021/22.
• More than a third (35.7%) of pupils across all school types were from minority ethnic (defined as other than white British) backgrounds, up from 34.5% in 2021/22. The percentage varies between geographical locations, with a much higher proportion of ethnic minority pupils in schools based in cities and large towns.
• One in five (20.2%) of pupils across all school types had a first language that is known or believed to be other than English, an increase from 19.5% in 2021/22. This varies by school type.  For example, in nursery schools the percentage was 30.4%, in primary schools, the percentage was 22.0% and in secondary schools was 18.1%.  In the data release text, the DfE says that this ‘is not a measure of English language proficiency or a good proxy for recent immigration’.

DFE PUBLISHES LATEST DATA ON APPRENTICESHIPS AND TRAINEESHIPS

On 8 June, the DfE published  Apprenticeships and Traineeships data for the period August 2022 to March 2023.  The data is based on returns from providers in May 2023 and includes the following:

• Apprenticeship starts were down by 4.1% to 195,600.
• Under 19s accounted for 28.4% of starts (55,580).
• Advanced apprenticeships accounted for 43.3% of starts (84,650) whilst higher apprenticeships accounted for 33.2% of starts (64,890).
• Higher apprenticeship starts increased by 7.1% to 64,890.
• Starts at Level 6 and 7 increased by 11.1% (30,710). This represents 15.7% of all starts reported to date for 2022/23.
• Apprenticeship achievements increased by 21.8% to 62,030 compared to 50,920 in the previous year.

IFATE PUBLISHES POLICY ON INTEGRATING MANDATORY QUALIFICATIONS WITH APPRENTICESHIP EPAS

Mandatory qualifications are often required by employers and for some occupations (for example gas fitting or electrical installation) they are a legal requirement.  IfATE estimates that around 40% of apprenticeships are currently required by employers to include a mandated qualification.  On 15 December last year, the Institute for Apprenticeships and Technical Education (IfATE) launched a public consultation on integrating mandatory qualifications with apprenticeship standards and end point assessments (EPAs).  Responses to the consultation, which closed on 17 February this year, revealed broad support for the proposal, and on 6 June, IfATE published new criteria for defining what constituted a mandatory qualification and how they would be integrated with EPAs.  IfATE also published guidance on the changes required to those apprenticeships affected, with any necessary changes required to be implemented by 6 July.  IfATE says that it is hoped that integrating mandatory qualification assessment with the EPA will help reduce the number of apprentices that leave their apprenticeship after they have achieved the required mandatory qualification, but before they take EPA.

IFATE LAUNCHES ‘FUTURE FACING INNOVATION STRATEGY’

On 31 May, IfATE published its ‘Future-Facing Innovation Strategy’.  In the strategy IfATE says, ‘As the voice of employers in the skills system, IfATE has a critical role when it comes to ensuring that apprenticeships and technical qualifications provide the skills employers need now, and in the future’.  IfATE goes on to say, ‘Innovation is key…to meeting the challenge of climate change, to driving productivity and economic growth, and to creating high-paid jobs that benefit everyone in society’.  To help achieve this, ‘IfATE will work with employers, innovators, technologists, and researchers to identify emerging skills needs and embed them into apprenticeships and technical qualifications’.

FATE PUBLISHES REPORT PROPOSING A ‘SIMPLER SKILLS SYSTEM’

On 13 June, IfATE published a report entitled ‘A Simpler Skills System’.  The report covers IfATE’s plans to ‘unite and rationalise the skills system’ and to ‘improve access to vital training for individuals and businesses and people’.  IfATE also included a new set of occupational maps in the report to ‘help learners navigate occupational routes’.  In the report, IfATE says that ‘when businesses know that apprenticeships and technical qualifications have been developed by employers, they have more confidence in them and are more likely to use them’.  IfATE also says that employers will be ‘at the heart of technical education’ and that their involvement will lead to ‘more valuable qualifications for the workforce’.  IfATE’s aims in the report include the following:

• Ensuring occupational standards, apprenticeships and technical qualifications meet employers’ needs.
• Providing employers with the flexibility they need to develop their workforce.
• Setting out a data-driven approach to monitoring the quality, relevance, and impact of apprenticeships and technical qualifications.
• Ensuring that users have access to information about apprenticeships and technical qualifications.
• Ensuring that users understand the new occupational route maps.
• Making a strong case for the increased productivity employers gain when they offer more skills training.
• Driving improvements in technical education outcomes.

WITHDRAWALS HAVE COST APPRENTICESHIP TRAINING PROVIDERS MORE THAN £1.8 BILLION OVER THE LAST FOUR YEARS

The amount paid to a training provider from the apprenticeship levy depends on the cost of the training.  The amount paid is within funding bands set by IfATE and approved by the government and varies depending on the level and type of apprenticeship.  Training providers are paid 80% of the total funding for apprenticeship training in monthly instalments as the apprenticeship progresses, with the remaining 20% paid when the outcome following completion is recorded (achievement or non-achievement).  Withdrawals are reported at apprentices’ planned end date and not the actual withdrawal date.  Apprenticeship software company Rubitek collected data on withdrawals from the DfE via a freedom of information act request and published it on 6 June.  The data reveals that training providers have lost more than £1.8 billion in potential earnings over the past four academic years as a result of apprentices withdrawing from their training programs.  It would probably be too simplistic to say that perhaps training providers should try harder to hold on to their apprentices.

NEW RESEARCH FINDS A MISMATCH BETWEEN STUDENT ASPIRATIONS AND WHAT THE ECONOMY NEEDS

On 8 June, Cibyl, a market research company specialising in student research projects, published the results of its latest annual survey of education and career aspirations.  The survey gathered responses from 11,720 pupils and students aged 12-18, from schools and colleges across the UK.  The survey findings suggest that there is a mismatch between the education and career aspirations of students and what employers and the UK economy as a whole need. For example, more than 7 in 10 respondents said that going to university was their first choice, but only 1 in 10 said they were considering an apprenticeship.  The reasons students gave for choosing university over an apprenticeship included being able to study a subject they were interested in (degrees in the arts and social sciences were more popular than degrees in maths and science, and other technically and vocationally orientated degrees).  Students also said that a university lifestyle appealed to them.  1 in 3 students said that they didn’t know enough about apprenticeships, which suggests that careers advice in schools and colleges could be improved.  The research also revealed that 1 in 4 students said they aim to work in the public sector.  Also, the apprenticeships the 1 in 10 were interested in did not reflect employers’ priorities.

PROPOSALS TO RESTRICT THE NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS…ARE RESTRICTED

In a bid to reduce annual net migration from the record high of 606,000 in 2022, the Home Secretary Suella Braverman has argued for more stringent restrictions on recruiting foreign students and curtailing the numbers of dependents international students could bring with them to the UK.  Ms Braverman has also called for a reduction in the amount of time students can remain in the country after graduating.  However, there has been considerable opposition to Ms Bravernan’s proposals, which includes the following:

• DfE officials have argued against radical cuts in the numbers of international students. The latest figures published by the Office for Students (OfS) shows that in 2021/22, foreign student fees made up 21% of UK universities’ total income and the DfE has warned that any reduction in this would either require more taxpayers’ money being paid to universities, or English students being required to pay much higher tuition fees.
• Universities UK (UUK) said that because tuition fees for students studying in England have been frozen at £9,250 for the last six years, the value of the fees in real terms has been eroded by inflation. Income from foreign students, says UUK, has been vital in plugging the funding gaps arising from this.
• The Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI) said that the much higher fees paid by international students has enabled universities to offer a much wider range of courses than would otherwise be viable and their higher fees have subsidised the cost of teaching home undergraduate students.
• Universities UK International (UUKi), which represents British HE institutions abroad said that the sector had been given mixed messages from the government about recruiting foreign students. The government had told them that there would be no increase in tuition fees for home students and no extra money forthcoming from the government, so they had to increase their income from overseas students through the government’s  International Education Strategy.  The government then appears to have become annoyed with HE institutions because they had done this so successfully.

Ms Braverman countered this by saying that there were ‘too many students coming into the country who are propping up, frankly, substandard courses in inadequate institutions’.  Her allies in government have supported her and the arguments made by some include the following:

• ‘We have seen growth in the use of a range of visa routes, including an unprecedented rise in the number of dependants arriving with students. This has understandably contributed to higher levels of net migration and put even more pressure on housing and public services’.
• ‘Universities have become hooked’ on international student income, much of which is required to pay for a continuous cycle of building programmes most of which is required to accommodate the continuous increase in international students’.
• ‘The very high proportion of first and upper-second class honours degrees currently being awarded is being used by some universities as a marketing tool to attract international students’.
• ‘There are concerns about the extent to which applications from foreign nationals for study visas for themselves and visas their dependents is really a tactic to circumvent immigration rules’.

However, the Home Office now appears to have reached a compromise with the DfE, as follows:

• From 1 January next year, only students on research based postgraduate courses will be able to bring their dependants to the UK with them.
• Other than meeting entry requirements and a having a sufficient level of proficiency in English, there will be no further restrictions on the numbers of international students that can be recruited by universities.

UNIVERSITIES UK PUBLISH REPORT ON INTERNATIONAL STUDENT RECRUITMENT PRACTICES

On 14 June, Universities UK (UUK), published a report entitled the ‘Diversification and Strengthening International Recruitment Practices’.  The report deals with the HE sector’s strategy for achieving sustainable growth and diversity in recruitment of international students, whilst ensuring compliance with the government’s immigration rules.  The report also covers modifications made by HE providers to their international student recruitment practices to help them manage and mitigate compliance risks.  The findings in the report were based on responses from 60 UUK members, and include the following:

• 49% said they had reformed their application processes to include an assessment of compliance risks.
• 90% said that they were currently diversifying their international student recruitment and had ‘opened their doors’ for students from new regions.
• 96% said that they required advance deposits from ‘most’ international students.
• 67% of those who use agents to recruit international students said they were using the UK Agent Quality Framework (a voluntary tool that supports best practice in work between HE providers and agents).

NEW DIRECTOR FOR FREEDOM OF SPEECH AND ACADEMIC FREEDOM

Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, has appointed Professor Arif Ahmed as the first Director for Freedom of Speech and Academic Freedom at the Office for Students (OfS).  Professor Ahmed, who is a Professor of Philosophy at the University of Cambridge, will have responsibility for investigating breaches of the Freedom of Speech Act 2023, which became law in May.  The Act, says the DfE, is primarily intended ‘help protect the reputation of universities and colleges as centres of academic freedom’.  However, the act also imposes legal responsibilities on universities, colleges and student unions to ‘take reasonably practicable steps to ensure lawful freedom of speech’.  Those that fail to comply with the requirements of the act, could face sanctions, including fines.  In his new role, Professor Ahmed will also oversee the implementation of a new complaints scheme for students, staff and visiting speakers, who could seek financial compensation if they are deemed to have personally suffered from a breach of the Act.

EDUCATION STAFF SHORTAGES (AND OTHER PARADOXES)

Staff shortages and vacancies in schools continue to increase, but staffing levels are at record highs: On 8 June, the DfE released the latest Workforce Census Data for state funded schools in England.  The data shows that the number of teacher vacancies is at a record high, but it also says that the number of teachers currently employed in schools is also at a record high.  The data also says that average teacher salary in England is now £41,604.  The workforce data is currently being used in two ways, depending on the interest group using it. Teacher unions in schools say that the data shows that:

• Around 44,000 teachers left the state sector in 2021/22, an increase of 7,800 compared with the previous year and the number of staff leaving teaching is at its highest rate since 2017/18.
• Teacher vacancies have doubled in the past two years from 1,100 in November 2020 to 2,300 in November 2022.
• The number of teachers in temporary posts increased from 1,800 to 3,000 over the same period.

However, in a press release on the workforce data published on 8 June, the government says that:

• Nearly 48,000 full time equivalent teachers joined schools in the 2022/2023 academic year.
• There are now almost 4,000 more teachers in schools than there were in 2021/22.
• £52 million more was invested in school teacher recruitment and retention in 2022/23 than in 2021/22.
• The total number of teachers in schools now stands at a record 458,000. For example, there are now around 27,000 more teachers in post than were in 2010.
• The number of teaching assistants in schools is now 281,100, an increase of 5,300 since last year.

FE is different: The reasons for staff shortages and high vacancy levels in FE are, of course, different.  This is possibly because the sector seems to be right at the bottom of the list of political importance for the government.  A report published last year by the Lifelong Learning Institute says that staffing in FE colleges in England fell by around a third since 2010 and the college vacancy rate now stands at 9%, double what it was prior to the pandemic.  This contraction was attributed to severe real terms cuts in funding over that period.  This is supported by research recently carried out by Prospects, which suggests that staff shortages and high vacancies in FE is mainly a result of colleges being unable to pay a salary competitive to that which a suitably qualified and experienced person could earn in industry or in a school.  The research shows that an FE teacher without teaching qualifications is likely to be earning between £19,700 and £23,300, and a FE teacher with teaching qualifications will earn between £24,700 and £37,300, depending on the subject, the financial position of the college and the number of years of service.

There are parallels with other public services.  For example, staff shortages and vacancies in the NHS continue to increase, but staffing levels are at record highs: The NHS is widely regarded as facing an existential crisis because of staffing shortages.  In support of this, a report published on 25 May by the British Medical Association (BMA) says that, ‘As of March 2023, there were a record 112,498 vacancies in secondary care in England of which 40,096 were in nursing (almost 10% of all nursing posts).  And a report from the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) predicts that there will be ‘a projected supply-demand gap of 140,600 nurses in the NHS in England by 2030/31’.

However, detailed data published by the DHSC on 25 May says that:

• In March this year, there was a record 1.27 million full-time equivalent staff working in NHS in England.
• There were 5,400 more doctors and 12,900 more nurses working in the NHS in March 2023 than in March 2022.
• 44,000 more nurses were in post in March 2023 than there were in September 2019.
• There were more than 29,000 extra staff working in primary care (for example, in GP surgeries, community pharmacies and care) in March 2023 compared to March 2019.
• Almost 2 million more GP appointments were delivered in the year to March 2023 (equivalent to 83,500 more appointments each working day) than in the year to March 2022.

Other data published by the DHSC on 27 April claims that in February this year, there were more than 37,800 more doctors and more than 53,700 more nurses than there were in 2010.  And a report published on 10 March by Statista, (a firm specialising in the collection and analysis of data), says that as of September 2022, there were over 139,000 full-time equivalent doctors in post in the NHS, which is more than double the number that were in post in the NHS in September 1995.

Another paradox.  There is a shortage of dwellings (houses and apartments), but the stock of dwellings is at its highest level: There is undoubtedly a chronic shortage of housing.  However, an updated report published on 23 May by the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities claims that the stock of dwellings is now at its highest level ever.

Numerous reasons are given for the cause of these crises, most of them political: But perhaps another reason for shortages might be found in Office for National Statistics (ONS) Census data.  The ONS data reveals that in the period between 2001 census and 2021 census, the population grew by almost 8 million to 67.3 million and has probably grown by a further million in 2021 and 2022 because of exceptionally high levels of net migration.  This might provide another explanation for the various crises reported in the provision of public services and the capacity of the UK’s physical infrastructure, in that the increase in the supply of these things is simply unable to keep up with the increase in demand.

UK WAGE GROWTH RATES NOW HIGHER THAN EU AND US WAGE GROWTH RATES

Indeed Hiring Lab is a research firm that provides global labour market data.  As part of its activities it uses a tool called Wage Tracker to monitor international changes in wage growth rates.  The reports they publish are followed closely by central banks and are used in their attempts to dampen high inflation rates.  A report published by the firm on 7 June shows that as of May, although annual wage growth has largely flattened out or declined across the EU and the US, it continues to rise in the UK.  This, says the report, may be a contributory factor to the UK’s higher level of inflation.  The research says that:

• In the year to May, the annual wage growth in the UK increased to 7.2%. (As an aside, this is higher than that offered to school teachers, and much higher than the non-existent pay offer to FE teachers).  The growth in wages was the strongest in nursing and lower-paid occupations including retail, customer service, cleaning, and food preparation and service.  This is thought to reflect newly agreed-upon pay deals for nurses and the 9.7% increase in the National Living Wage in April.
• In the broader Euro Area, wage growth fell to an average of 4.7%, however trends differ across different EU countries. The overall annual wage growth was highest in Germany and stood at 6.2% in May, but down from a peak of 7.0% last October.  Wage growth in Spain and the Netherlands both increased to 5.0% in May, while Ireland and France held steady at 4.9% and 4.8%, respectively.  In Italy, annual wage growth has slowed to just 1.6%.
• In the US, wage growth fell to 5.3%, from a peak of 9.3% recorded in early 2022.

The report also says that:

• Wage growth in the UK and Euro Area countries closely mirrors the core rate of inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, in those countries. However, when these items are included, the headline rate of inflation increases well above wage growth in both the UK and the EU, although there has been some convergence in recent months as inflation has started to fall in all countries.
• Despite higher interest rates and a tighter monetary policy in both the UK and the EU, unemployment rates remain at or near historic lows. While job vacancies have gradually fallen in most countries, they are still historically high when measured by the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment.  This ratio has fallen recently but still shows that there are more jobs available than workers to fill them.

With specific reference to the UK, post Covid labour shortages and the impact of the war in Ukraine on energy and food prices have had a significant impact on the level of inflation.  However, policy makers seem to regard high wage growth in the UK as being the main cause of inflationary pressure.  They also appear to be prepared to use monetary tools to depress wage growth.  The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, says that it is likely that further interest rate rises (possibly to 5.75% by the end of the year) are likely to be necessary to dampen inflation.  Also, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, has said that the UK has ‘no alternative’ but to raise interest rates in order to bring down inflation, and that he would even be prepared to accept an economic recession if it reduced inflation.  But some argue that inflation is partly ‘greedflation’ and that some firms are being opportunistic in using the Covid lockdown, the war in Ukraine and the energy ‘crisis’ as an excuse to put up their prices in order to increase their profits.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Deputy Managing Director, Gita Gopinath, speaking on the BBC’s Newsnight on 5 June offered another solution to reducing inflation in the UK.  She said that the government should actively encourage higher levels of immigration to the UK.  More migrant workers, she said, will help fill vacancies and, in so doing, will reduce the rate of wage growth.  However, others, particularly the unions, argue that wage growth is not the main cause of inflation.  They say that it is clear that wages are failing to keep up with the rate of inflation and this has resulted in a cut in real wages for virtually all workers (except the highest paid).  With reference to encouraging higher levels of immigration, this might depress wages even further below the rate of inflation than they currently are.  But others argue that this would be particularly harsh for those in lower paid jobs.  An interesting reflection on Ms Gopinath’s views can be found in an article written by Aaron Bastani and published on 9 June in the online magazine ‘UnHerd’.

ONS PUBLISHES LATEST LABOUR MARKET STATISTICS

On 13 June, the ONS published its latest bulletin on employment and other work-related changes.  The data contained some surprises when compared earlier predictions, some of which were more pessimistic.  The data includes the following:

• The UK employment rate was 76.0% in the quarter to April 2023. This was just 0.2% higher than in the previous quarter.
• The total number of people in work rose by 395,000 to a new record high of 36.8 million. The number of payrolled employees increased by 23,000 on the previous quarter, to a record of 30.0 million.
• The unemployment rate for the quarter decreased from 3.9% to 3.8%. Unemployment had been expected to rise to 4.0%, but instead around 250,000 more people obtained jobs.
• The economic inactivity rate decreased by 0.4% with an additional 140,000 who had been economically inactive now in work. These included retirees returning to work and more young people finding jobs.
• However, those people who were economically inactive because of long-term sickness increased to a record high of 2.6 million.
• The number of job vacancies fell by 79,000 to 1,051,000. Economic uncertainty was the main reason given by employers for holding back on recruitment.

ONS PUBLISHES DATA ON GDP CHANGES

The UK monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.3% in March and a further contraction of 0.2% in the output of goods and services was predicted for April. However, ONS data published on 14 June revealed that the monthly GDP actually grew by 0.2% in April meaning that there was an overall increase in GDP of 0.1% for the first quarter of 2023.  This is clearly not a high rate of growth, but it is currently above the contraction that was predicted for the UK economy by the IMF and higher than the economic contraction actually being experienced by many Eurozone countries (for example, Germany).

AND FINALLY…

An English Language lecturer was covering vowels and consonants and their role in the formation of words, sentences and paragraphs in his class.  He told his students that it would be almost impossible to construct a paragraph without using every single vowel.  To demonstrate how hard this would be, he challenged the students to construct a paragraph of several sentences, but without using the letter ‘e’ in any of the words.  After giving it some thought, one of the students put up her hand and said:

‘As you point out, writing such a paragraph without using words which contain that particular symbol is a difficult task.  I think trying to omit the symbol from all the words in the paragraph is as daunting as trying to make muffins without flour, or trying to spit without saliva, or trying to nap without a pillow.  It’s probably as difficult as driving a train without tracks or sailing to Thailand without a boat or washing your hands without soap.  So, do I think I could accomplish the task? I think I possibly could, but in doing so I also think it’s doubtful that I could satisfy your high standards.  But what, I am thinking, would I gain anyway?  I had a go and actually did construct a paragraph without using any words containing that symbol, would you mark my work as a ‘pass’, or ‘good’ or possibly a ‘distinction’?  If it was worth a ‘distinction’ I would try to do it.  But if it was just bragging rights that I’d gain, I wouldn’t want folks to think I was showing off, so I probably wouldn’t try to do it. How’s that?

Alan Birks – June 2023

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